Winter is only just behind us, but Australia's weather could soon experience a significantly warmer change. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has confirmed an El Niño has arrived, meaning the weather might will different in the coming months.

An El Niño is driven by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which in turn alter atmospheric circulation across the globe. In this instance, the BOM is predicting the effects of the El Niño might be some of the strongest on record — which is why you might have seen the phrase 'super El Niño' in the news.

With this in mind, we're investigating what a super El Niño looks like for our climate and what it could mean for Australian weather in 2026.

It could be the strongest ever recorded

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, this El Niño will be classified as "very strong" – the highest on a classification system of weak, moderate, strong or very strong.

"Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity," the WMO said.

They also said its effects would likely continue until at least February 2027, and warned that this El Niño "has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world."

What is a super El Niño?

El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle driven by warming ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. A “super El Niño” refers to an especially strong version of this, where the sea surface temperature rises well above average, amplifying its impact on global weather systems.

These shifts don’t just stay over the ocean, but ripple on to influence rainfall, temperature and pressure patterns worldwide. It means Australia could soon experience record-breaking weather events.

How this El Niño will affect Australia’s weather

For Australia, an El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions, because it weakens the flow of moist air across the Pacific, reducing cloud formation and limiting rainfall.

This often leads to below-average rainfall through winter and spring. In practical terms, this means an unusually dry period is likely as winter transitions into spring.

Additionally, reduced cloud cover usually means higher daytime temperatures, especially across southern Australia during spring and summer. Combined with dry conditions, this increases the likelihood of drought and extends the bushfire season.

If a super El Niño develops, these risks are more likely to intensify, with longer heatwaves and more extreme fire weather.

When will it happen?

The latest reporting from the ABC suggests the El Niño has arrived as of mid-June 2026, and will intensify over the next six months, in spring and summer.

What it means for different regions

The impacts of El Niño vary across the country.

In northern Australia, it can delay the onset of normal rainfall and reduce the number of tropical cyclones, particularly along Queensland’s coast.

Alpine regions may see shorter, less reliable snow seasons as warming and reduced rainfall take hold. At the same time, southern areas may experience clearer skies, which can lead to colder winter nights and more frequent frost, even as overall average temperatures increase.

The role of other climate drivers

El Niño does not operate in isolation. One of the most important complementary systems is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which measures temperature differences across the Indian Ocean.

A positive IOD typically reduces rainfall over southern and central Australia. When this occurs alongside El Niño, the drying effect can be amplified, increasing the risk of drought and extreme heat.

Ocean temperatures also play a role. In recent years, unusually warm seas around Australia have contributed to more persistent heat extremes and intensified rainfall events.

Feature image from La Collectionneuse (1967)